Weighted pipeline is only as good as the weights
Weighted pipeline takes every open deal, multiplies it by its stage probability, and adds them up. It's supposed to tell you what you'll actually close. It's only as good as the probabilities.
Where the weights come from
In most CRMs, somebody set the stage probabilities once, usually when the system was set up: maybe 50% at Proposal and 80% at Negotiation. Then nobody checked them against what actually closed. They're defaults, not data.
What that looks like
Take a pipeline with four qualified deals worth $3.08M. The CRM's weights add up to $2.19M, which works out to a 71% average. The same team's closed deals won 39% by value. At that rate, the realistic expectation is about $1.2M.
The weighted number is almost double what the team's own history supports, and it makes a short pipeline look nearly fine.
How to use each one
- Unweighted pipeline goes with your real win rate. Coverage needed is one divided by the win rate: a 25% win rate needs 4X.
- Weighted pipeline is already discounted. Compare it straight to what's left of the target, and 1.0X is enough.
- Never hold weighted pipeline to 3X, and never multiply it by your win rate. Both count the discount twice.
Check your weights
Divide your weighted pipeline by your unweighted pipeline. That's the win rate your CRM assumes. Put it next to the one you actually get. If the CRM's number is ten points higher, your forecast is leaning on optimism somebody typed in years ago.
Pipeline Check compares your CRM's weighted pipeline with what your real win rate says.
Try it