4X coverage can still be a house of cards.

Five ways a covered pipeline falls over

Pipeline Check asks whether you have enough. This asks whether what you have would survive a bad week. A seller can be at 4X and one slipped deal from missing the year.

SPREAD: What if the big one slips? If a third of the number sits in one or two deals, your forecast is a bet on one customer's procurement calendar. Managers can't see this in the coverage ratio, which is why they ask about it in the review.

MOTION: Is it moving? A deal that hasn't changed stage in sixty days isn't in the stage it's in. It's parked, and parked deals leave the forecast all at once, usually in the last week of the quarter.

NEXT: Whose calendar is the next step on? A next step that only you scheduled is a task. A next step the customer put on their calendar is a commitment. Commit pipeline with no customer action in it is pipeline with no customer in it.

TIMING: When is it due? If most of the number lands in the last month of the period, you've built a year that can only be saved in December. Federal money makes this worse, not better: a September close is a September problem.

FRESH: Are you still creating? Pipeline you inherited or carried over runs out. If a quarter of what you're carrying wasn't created this quarter, next year's crater is already dug.

Four states of a pipeline

Sturdy. Spread out, moving, with customers on the calendar. Go get the coverage number too.

Lopsided. One weakness. Fix it before the review notices.

Fragile. A slip or a quiet customer takes you off the number. Re-underwrite the commit deals now.

House of cards. It looks like coverage. It is a schedule of hopes. Rebuild it from the customers up.

Questions